Methodology

This tracker records a four-week PM Crowd vs Wall Street benchmark challenge.

Tamper-evidence

Predictions are locked at submission and assigned a SHA-256 hash in a public manifest.

Wall Street benchmark

Wall Street benchmark is an explicitly documented comparator entered at settlement: named institutional/consensus P&L, macro desk baseline, or pre-declared benchmark portfolio. It must be recorded with source notes before publishing final results.

P&L formula

For each binary market, participant P&L = stake * ((1 - entryPrice) / entryPrice) when the submitted side resolves correct; otherwise -stake. Edge vs Wall Street = sum(participant P&L) - sum(benchmark P&L).

Caveats

• This MVP does not yet verify participant identity beyond email capture.
• The Wall Street benchmark must be selected and documented before final publication to avoid hindsight bias.
• Small sample sizes and unresolved markets should be disclosed alongside any leaderboard claims.
• Prediction market prices, liquidity, fees, and execution assumptions can affect realized P&L.